Last Song of "The Big Dance"

Tonight is the night that March Madness ends. My favorite time of year has come and is almost gone. I live for the past month. Watching basketball is something that I truly enjoy to do. So, before I get too mushy, here are my thoughts on the Kansas-Kentucky matchup.

I'll start with Kentucky because I have seen them play a lot more than Kansas. Kentucky is a team that is definitely better in the transition game. Fast breaks start with steals or blocks and they are off like the horses of the Derby. In transition they seek to find the open man. I think it's safe to say that the Wildcats are a pretty unselfish group. Which surprises me due to the fact that most of them are top recruits and typically they have a more selfish attitude toward scoring. I've been impressed that Coach Calipari has gotten this done with the type of recruits that he enlists.

In the halfcourt, I don't think UK is as good, but still possesses the ability to score, but things look not as easy as when in the open floor. Anthony Davis' low-post offensive performance in the national semi-final game against Louisville looked so easy. His turn around jump hooks were, in essence, pure beauty. He also used his left and finished with it.

Weaknesses that I see...

1. Youth - This is the National Championship game. How will they respond? Louisville's full court pressure and in your face man press did pester UK's guards at times. Their youth hasn't necessarily bothered them this year, but with one game left, is this where it eventually catches up with them. 
2. Guard play - I think Kansas has the advantage here. I only say this because I think their guards are weaker than their interior players. 
3. I think Coach Bill Self is a better in-game adjustment coach and will come up with some wrinkle that Coach Calipari won't figure out. 

Moving on to Kansas. KU has a lot of momentum going for them.  They knocked off North Carolina and then fought back and took Ohio State in the closing minutes. They play a lot of upperclassmen. I think this might come into play as the game unfolds and in-game adjustments will be made.  KU likes to get up-and-down as well, but I think they will slow it down some and operate in the half-court more in this game because I believe they have a greater advantage here. I also think Withey can handle Davis in the post which will let everyone else stay with their man and limit Kentucky to one shot. 

Weaknesses that I see...

1. KU doesn't score very consistently. They go on runs or they get behind. They can't afford to get too far behind in this game. Kentucky can extend a lead very quickly and this game could be over quite quickly. 
2. They wait until the end to turn on their defense and make comebacks at the very end. I don't say this because their defense is not very good, because it definitely is. I am really impressed with their stifling defense. Refer to weakness #1 above as what will happen if they get behind. 
3. Individually, I think that Kentucky has the advantage of 1-on-1 man matchups. But as a whole, I think their team defense is better. What will they do as a group to combat the amazing talent that Kentucky has will be a huge key. 

Kentucky Keys -

1. Funnel everything to Anthony Davis and his intimidation.
2. Score in transition.
3. Don't let youth mistakes compound. 

Kansas Keys - 

1. Get Anthony Davis on the perimeter and make him defend. Get Anthony Davis in foul trouble. 
2. Come up with some sort of wrinkle to combat the shot blocking of Anthony Davis. While watching the last two games of Kentucky, Davis has had amazing blocks coming from the weakside as guards are shooting shots where they have been hanging in the air for a while. I would like to see the guards keep their dribble alive longer and make one more pass than shoot an off-balance floater. Be under control a little longer than you normally would before leaving your feet for a shot in the lane. I know you're thinking "What in the world does that mean?" Davis waits until you release the ball before he jumps. Plus, trying to shoot over a 7'4" wingspan is almost nearly impossible.  
3. Don't let the game get out of hand. The score needs to stay close. If it stays in the low sixties, I expect Kansas to win. If it gets into the seventies - Kentucky will most like win. If it's in the 80s or above. Kentucky wins without a doubt. 

Prediction - Predicting who will win and wanting someone to win are totally different things. I think Kentucky will win. I want Kansas to win. I just want a good game to watch. A close game. That's it. 

Thoughts? 2 hours until tip.