Last Song of "The Big Dance"

Tonight is the night that March Madness ends. My favorite time of year has come and is almost gone. I live for the past month. Watching basketball is something that I truly enjoy to do. So, before I get too mushy, here are my thoughts on the Kansas-Kentucky matchup.

I'll start with Kentucky because I have seen them play a lot more than Kansas. Kentucky is a team that is definitely better in the transition game. Fast breaks start with steals or blocks and they are off like the horses of the Derby. In transition they seek to find the open man. I think it's safe to say that the Wildcats are a pretty unselfish group. Which surprises me due to the fact that most of them are top recruits and typically they have a more selfish attitude toward scoring. I've been impressed that Coach Calipari has gotten this done with the type of recruits that he enlists.

In the halfcourt, I don't think UK is as good, but still possesses the ability to score, but things look not as easy as when in the open floor. Anthony Davis' low-post offensive performance in the national semi-final game against Louisville looked so easy. His turn around jump hooks were, in essence, pure beauty. He also used his left and finished with it.

Weaknesses that I see...

1. Youth - This is the National Championship game. How will they respond? Louisville's full court pressure and in your face man press did pester UK's guards at times. Their youth hasn't necessarily bothered them this year, but with one game left, is this where it eventually catches up with them. 
2. Guard play - I think Kansas has the advantage here. I only say this because I think their guards are weaker than their interior players. 
3. I think Coach Bill Self is a better in-game adjustment coach and will come up with some wrinkle that Coach Calipari won't figure out. 

Moving on to Kansas. KU has a lot of momentum going for them.  They knocked off North Carolina and then fought back and took Ohio State in the closing minutes. They play a lot of upperclassmen. I think this might come into play as the game unfolds and in-game adjustments will be made.  KU likes to get up-and-down as well, but I think they will slow it down some and operate in the half-court more in this game because I believe they have a greater advantage here. I also think Withey can handle Davis in the post which will let everyone else stay with their man and limit Kentucky to one shot. 

Weaknesses that I see...

1. KU doesn't score very consistently. They go on runs or they get behind. They can't afford to get too far behind in this game. Kentucky can extend a lead very quickly and this game could be over quite quickly. 
2. They wait until the end to turn on their defense and make comebacks at the very end. I don't say this because their defense is not very good, because it definitely is. I am really impressed with their stifling defense. Refer to weakness #1 above as what will happen if they get behind. 
3. Individually, I think that Kentucky has the advantage of 1-on-1 man matchups. But as a whole, I think their team defense is better. What will they do as a group to combat the amazing talent that Kentucky has will be a huge key. 

Kentucky Keys -

1. Funnel everything to Anthony Davis and his intimidation.
2. Score in transition.
3. Don't let youth mistakes compound. 

Kansas Keys - 

1. Get Anthony Davis on the perimeter and make him defend. Get Anthony Davis in foul trouble. 
2. Come up with some sort of wrinkle to combat the shot blocking of Anthony Davis. While watching the last two games of Kentucky, Davis has had amazing blocks coming from the weakside as guards are shooting shots where they have been hanging in the air for a while. I would like to see the guards keep their dribble alive longer and make one more pass than shoot an off-balance floater. Be under control a little longer than you normally would before leaving your feet for a shot in the lane. I know you're thinking "What in the world does that mean?" Davis waits until you release the ball before he jumps. Plus, trying to shoot over a 7'4" wingspan is almost nearly impossible.  
3. Don't let the game get out of hand. The score needs to stay close. If it stays in the low sixties, I expect Kansas to win. If it gets into the seventies - Kentucky will most like win. If it's in the 80s or above. Kentucky wins without a doubt. 

Prediction - Predicting who will win and wanting someone to win are totally different things. I think Kentucky will win. I want Kansas to win. I just want a good game to watch. A close game. That's it. 

Thoughts? 2 hours until tip. 

Champs, Again

Florida repeats as I didn't see happening. 85-74. Oden has a great game, 25 and 12. Conley carries them throughout, but gets no help whatsoever from any other Buckeye not named Greg. The Buckeyes couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. They were 4-23 from behind the arc. Corey Brewer was good but the MOP should have been Oden. I think that it should have went to Oden even though he was on the losing team. There is no way that Brewer was more outstanding than Oden was. He held Noah, Horford, Richard, and Speights to 35 points. He also played 38 minutes. Besides Horford was better than Brewer even was scoring more points, grabbing more rebounds, dishing more assists, and had 1 more block. The only stat that Brewer had that was higher than Horford's were steals.

The Buckeyes just couldn't contain the outside shooting of Humphey, Green, and Brewer. They got uncontested looks and you just can't do that. Humphrey, the all-time 3-point leader in the NCAA tournament, was left wide open on many occasions.

Good game, but Florida was definitely the better team tonight. OSU couldn't get within 6 points and when they got that close, the Gators would just put on a run to get it back to 11 or 12.

Champion Game Set

Well, the Final Four Championship game is set with defending champs Florida, taking on Ohio State. I had one game right, OSU, and one wrong, UCLA.

In game one. It came down to executing and Mike Conley gets the ball to the correct people at the correct time. Oden and Hibbert were in foul trouble most of the game. I would lean toward Hibbert playing the overall better game. I would also give him the edge because he can step out and shoot. Oden has never played anyone bigger than him before and I think that Hibbert really got the best of Oden. When it was just one-on-one in the post Oden looked like he struggled to get off shots, and Hibbert looked as if he could make a move and shoot a nice shot. Hibbert did miss a lot, but it seemed to come easier to him. Green for Georgetown was a non-factor throughout the whole game. For being the Big East player of the year, he didn't take any initiative and try to score.

In game two. UCLA's defense in the first 5 minutes or so was outstanding. The only problem was that they couldn't score offensively and the score was 6-5 after 7 minutes or so. UCLA got into foul trouble and some reserves got a lot of minutes and Florida was ahead by 6 at the half. At the start of the second half, Florida came out firing from three land and Humphrey was lights out. His first two shots were pretty much uncontested. I have no idea how you let him have open looks but UCLA did and he hit them. I think I would have not doubled and made Horford and Noah beat them instead of letting Brewer and Humphrey nail threes. Afflalo and Collison did their best impression of Green from Georgetown and didn't score until at least 10 minutes to go in the second half. Another interesting thing I noticed was that Noah is a horrible Free Throw shooter and whenever UCLA wound foul him, it would be more of a love tap and Noah would make the layup. To me it seems like they should have just not let him get the shot off and made him earn it from the line.

Prediction for Monday Night - The key for both teams will be the perimeter guys. I give the edge to Florida, simply because they have been in the championship before. But I also give a nod to Ohio State because of their bench play and the high school experience of Oden and Conley (3 state championships). I think that Oden can play Noah and Horford one-on-one and that will allow OSU's backcourt to not double and stay locked on to their men. Taurean Green, of Florida, is coming off a lot of turnovers against UCLA. OSU will not pressure as much as UCLA will but the matchup of Conley and Green should be an interesting one. I am picking the Buckeyes to upset the repeat of the Gators. OSU by 4. MOP = Conley/Oden.

Plus I am tired of the chest pumping Noah.